Appendices

Appendix 1: Demographics of Cardinia Shire

Locality maps

Geographical situation – Melbourne area municipalities

Map: Geographical situation – Melbourne area municipalities

Melbourne 8806 sq km

Cardinia Shire Council 1280 sq km

Townships

Townships of Cardinia Shire

27 rural townships

3 growth area suburbs

Population forecasts

Both of the tables below demonstrate that Cardinia Shire as a whole will experience significant growth in both the short-term over the life of the plan and in the long-term forecasts until 2031 (Informed Decisions 2008a).

Population forecasts 2009–13

Forecast year

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Total population

65,894

68,910

72,173

75,830

79,215

Resident population in non-private dwellings

570

670

670

670

670

Resident population in private dwellings

65,324

68,241

71,501

75,160

78,545

Households

23,562

24,726

26,029

27,502

28,920

Dwellings

24,243

25,447

26,796

28,320

29,790

Average household size

2.77

2.76

2.75

2.73

2.72

Long term population forecasts 2009–31

Forecast year

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

Total population

72,173

90,318

111,300

129,853

143,312

Resident population in non-private dwellings

670

836

1,021

1,200

1,359

Resident population in private dwellings

71,501

89,481

110,278

128,649

141,951

Households

26,029

33,391

41,653

49,129

54,921

Dwellings

26,796

34,415

42,953

50,703

56,740

Average household size

2.75

2.68

2.65

2.62

2.58

Population forecast distribution

Although all areas of the Shire will experience growth, growth rates and proportion of expansion will differ across the various sub-regions of the Shire.

Map: Hills area

Hills area

2009: 20,058

2025: 20,140

2031: 20,517

2% increase

+ 459 people

The Hills sub-region in the northern part of the Shire is forecast to only experience minimum growth. The main factors limiting growth are demographic change, and restriction on housing expansion due to environmental and community restrictions.

Map: Growth area

Growth area

2009: 34,008

2025: 91,496

2031: 106,231

210% increase

+ 72,200 people

The majority of the growth will occur in the designated growth area, comprising the townships of Beaconsfield, Officer and Pakenham. The main factor in this significant population change is the designation of this area as a growth area under the Victorian Government’s Melbourne 2030 and Melbourne @ 5 Million plans.

Map: Southern rural

Southern rural

2009: 11,828

2025: 15,042

2031: 16,564

40% increase

+4,700 people

There will be more gradual, moderate growth throughout the southern and eastern townships of the Shire. The limiting factors on growth are the preservation of valuable agricultural land to the south, as well as environmental protections for “green wedge” areas of land that limits expansion of the townships. The towns likely to accommodate the majority of this growth include Garfield, Bunyip, Koo Wee Rup and Lang Lang.

Demographic trends

Household types forecast

As can be seen from the graph below, a large proportion of forecast households are expected to be either couple families with dependents, or lone parent families with dependents. That said it is also important to note the significant proportion of couples without dependents, and well as lone person households, as all of these household types will need different housing configurations and types, and will be scattered throughout the municipality. The increase in lone person and couples without dependents households also assists in accounting for the ongoing forecast decrease in household size from 2009 to 2031.

Household types forecast 2009–13

Household types forecast 2009–13

Household types forecasts 2016–31

Household types forecast 2016–31

Age demographics

Closely related to housing types is the forecast expected proportions of age demographics. As can be seen from the graph below, there is growth in all age groups. There is a clear significant peaking in the 25–49 age groups, and the 0–11 age groups, which are likely to be couple or lone parent families with dependents as seen from the graph above.

Forecast age structure 2009–13

Forecast age structure 2016-31

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